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摘要

84年后的農(nóng)業(yè)增長(zhǎng)率的急劇下降引起了產(chǎn)權(quán)改革是否是核心，是否要私有化的爭(zhēng)論。其中投資是爭(zhēng)論的焦點(diǎn)之一。但是不同的觀點(diǎn)相對(duì)應(yīng)的實(shí)證分析還沒(méi)有得到一致的，令人信服的結(jié)論。本文系統(tǒng)的分析了地權(quán)穩(wěn)定性對(duì)各種農(nóng)業(yè)投資，特別是固定于土地的長(zhǎng)期投資的影響，同時(shí)考察了其他一些因素的影響，嘗試著對(duì)這場(chǎng)爭(zhēng)論提出自己的見(jiàn)解。

我們的理論模型指出地權(quán)的不穩(wěn)定性抑制了長(zhǎng)期投資，但對(duì)其他投資的影響隨外生約束的變化會(huì)有所不同。小調(diào)的負(fù)面影響較小，而合適的補(bǔ)償機(jī)制降低了大調(diào)的負(fù)面作用，其他因素對(duì)投資的影響方向也隨約束條件的變化而變化。同時(shí)農(nóng)業(yè)的低比較收益對(duì)投資有著雙重的重要的負(fù)面影響。

實(shí)證分析證實(shí)了地權(quán)的不穩(wěn)定對(duì)長(zhǎng)期投資顯著的負(fù)面影響，而且大調(diào)的影響大，小調(diào)的影響小，也證實(shí)了補(bǔ)償機(jī)制有正向作用。我們同時(shí)得到了：小調(diào)刺激了化肥的施用，也減少了農(nóng)業(yè)勞動(dòng)投入，而大調(diào)對(duì)兩者的影響基本不顯著。這種差異證實(shí)了約束條件的變化的重要影響，也暗示了農(nóng)業(yè)的比較收益的重要性。另外我們還證實(shí)了非農(nóng)就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，村組的相對(duì)應(yīng)的長(zhǎng)期投資都顯著的降低了農(nóng)戶的長(zhǎng)期投資，進(jìn)而我們對(duì)產(chǎn)權(quán)核心論提出了質(zhì)疑。

關(guān)鍵詞：地權(quán)穩(wěn)定性，大調(diào)整，小調(diào)整，長(zhǎng)期投資，短期投入，勞動(dòng)投入，農(nóng)家肥，農(nóng)業(yè)比較收益，約束條件，村組投資，補(bǔ)償機(jī)制，集體所有制，產(chǎn)權(quán)核心論

LandTenureSecurityandFarmerInvestment:TheoryandEvidencefromChina

Abstract

Thesharpdropintheagriculturalgrowthrateprovokedahotdebateaboutwhetherthemainproblemlayinlandrightornot,andwhetherweneededtoprivatizelandornot.Investmenthasbeenoneofthefocuses.Noconvincingempiricalevidencehasbeenprovidedeithertovalidateorinvalidatethearguments.Ourpapersystematicallyexplorestheimpactthatlandinsecurityhasonagriculturalinvestments,especiallyonlong-termandland-savinginvestment.Wealsoanalyzeeffectsofotherelements.Wetrytogiveourcontributionabouttheissue.

Ourtheoreticalmodelpredictsthatlandtenureinsecurityadverselyaffectslong-terminvestment,buttheeffectsonotherinvestmentsdependingontheexogenousconstraints.Partialadjustmenthaslessnegativeeffect,andsomeproperrecoupmentmechanismsalleviatethenegativeeffectofrearrangement.Theeffectsofotherelementsoninvestmentsarealsodependingonexogenousconstraints.Andwepointouttherelativelyloweryieldofagriculturehastwoimportantnegativeimpacts.

Ourempiricalanalysisfindsevidencesofthenegativeeffectoflandinsecurityonlong-terminvestment.Andrearrangementhasmorenegativeeffectthanpartialeffect.Alsowefindevidenceofthepositiveeffectofrecoupmentmechanism.Atthesametime,wefindpartialadjustmentincreasesuseoffertilizer,anddecreaseslaborinput.Butrearrangementhasnosuchsignificanteffect.Thisdifferenceimpliestheimportanceofchangeinconstraint,andthentheimportanceoftherelativeyieldofagriculture.Inaddition,wesubstantiatenon-farmopportunityandthecollectiveinvestmentbothhavesignificantlynegativeimpactonlong-terminvestment.Andwedoubtlandrightisnotkeyproblemofthedecliningofagriculturalinvestment.

Keyword:landtenuresecurity,rearrangement,partialarrangement,long-term(andlandsaving)investment,short-terminput,laborinput,organicfertilizers,relativeyieldofagriculture,exogenousconstraint,collectiveinvestment,recoupmechanism,landrightschool